Regulation & Policy

Clarity Act faces growing uncertainty as Galaxy Research cuts passage forecast

June 29, 2026

4 min

Summary

Galaxy Research cut its probability estimate for the Clarity Act's passage in 2026 from 60% to 50%, citing a tightening Senate calendar and stalled procedural progress rather than policy opposition to the bill itself.

Key Takeaways

Galaxy's downgrade is explicitly procedural, not substantive: the bill retains bipartisan support, but the Senate has yet to schedule a floor date or motion to proceed, compressing the viable legislative window.
If no Senate action occurs in early July, Galaxy's Thorn expects consideration to shift to September, when midterm election politics will further crowd the agenda and reduce bandwidth for complex regulatory legislation.
Trump's conditional stance on the SAVE Act adds a competing priority to the Senate calendar, indirectly squeezing the time available for the Clarity Act's multi-step procedural path.
The Clarity Act's passage would resolve years of SEC-CFTC jurisdictional overlap for exchanges, token issuers, and institutional investors, making even minor scheduling signals high-stakes indicators for the digital asset industry.

Galaxy Research has become more cautious about the outlook for the Clarity Act, reducing its estimate of the bill’s chances of becoming law in 2026. While the legislation remains one of the most closely watched crypto market structure proposals in the United States, analysts believe its prospects have weakened as the Senate faces mounting scheduling pressures and limited legislative time.

The revised forecast reflects procedural and political challenges rather than concerns over the bill itself, underscoring how congressional timing has become one of the biggest variables shaping the future of U.S. crypto regulation.

Galaxy Research Cuts Approval Odds to 50%

Galaxy Research has lowered the probability that the Clarity Act will be enacted in 2026 from 60% to 50%.

In a research note published on Friday, Alex Thorn, Head of Firmwide Research at Galaxy, explained that the downgrade stems largely from a tightening Senate calendar and the absence of meaningful progress in negotiations over recent weeks.

According to Thorn, the legislation itself continues to enjoy considerable support. However, with no Senate floor date announced and no motion to proceed scheduled, the available time to advance such a complex bill is shrinking rapidly.

Senate Calendar Becomes the Main Challenge

The latest revision highlights how legislative timing, not policy disagreements, is increasingly determining the Clarity Act's prospects.

Galaxy had already lowered its estimate earlier in June, but little procedural progress has followed. Without a floor debate or scheduling announcement in early July, Thorn believes consideration of the bill could be delayed until September, when Congress is expected to shift attention toward the political dynamics surrounding the upcoming midterm elections.

As the legislative calendar becomes more crowded, large bipartisan bills requiring extensive debate face greater difficulty reaching the Senate floor.

Competing Priorities Add Pressure to the Legislative Agenda

Beyond procedural delays, other priorities in Washington are also reducing the available window for crypto legislation.

Galaxy pointed to President Donald Trump's recent warning that he would withhold his approval of a housing package unless Congress first passes the SAVE Act. That position adds another major item to an already crowded Senate agenda, leaving lawmakers with even less time to address complex regulatory bills.

Because the Clarity Act still requires multiple procedural stages, including committee coordination, floor debate, amendments, Senate approval, and subsequent House consideration, every scheduling delay further complicates its path toward enactment.

A Critical Moment for U.S. Crypto Regulation

The Clarity Act has emerged as one of the centerpiece proposals in Washington's broader effort to establish a comprehensive regulatory framework for digital assets. The legislation follows years of regulatory uncertainty, during which overlapping oversight between the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) created legal ambiguity for exchanges, developers, token issuers, and institutional investors.

Momentum behind the bill accelerated after the House of Representatives approved the legislation earlier this year, marking one of the most significant legislative victories for the crypto industry to date. The vote strengthened expectations that Congress could finally deliver long-awaited market structure legislation, shifting attention toward the Senate as the final major hurdle.

Lawmakers from both parties have since continued negotiations to refine the proposal, with Senate aides recently indicating that the Clarity Act remains among the chamber's highest legislative priorities when Congress reconvenes in July.

Industry Watches the Senate Closely

The uncertainty surrounding the Clarity Act has become increasingly important for the broader digital asset industry. Many exchanges, institutional investors, and blockchain companies view the legislation as a potential turning point that could provide clearer operating rules after years of regulatory disputes.

As a result, even procedural developments, such as committee meetings, scheduling announcements, or delays in Senate debate, have become closely monitored indicators of the bill's chances of success.

Although Galaxy has reduced its forecast to an even 50-50 probability, the firm emphasized that such odds remain relatively favorable given the complexity of the legislation and the number of procedural steps still required before it can become law.

A Defining Test for U.S. Crypto Policy

The latest revision illustrates that the future of crypto regulation in the United States now depends as much on political timing as on regulatory consensus. Unlike previous years, the debate is no longer centered on whether Congress should establish a market structure framework, but rather on how quickly lawmakers can navigate competing legislative priorities to deliver one. Even if the Clarity Act slips beyond the current legislative window, the continued bipartisan engagement suggests that comprehensive digital asset regulation remains firmly on Washington's agenda, making the bill's eventual outcome likely a question of timing rather than intent.

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Disclaimer of Warranty

The information provided in this article is for general informational purposes only. We make no warranties about the completeness, reliability, and accuracy of this information. Read full disclaimer

Clarity Act faces growing uncertainty as Galaxy Research cuts passage forecast

News Desk

June 29, 2026

4 min

Summary

Key Takeaways

Galaxy's downgrade is explicitly procedural, not substantive: the bill retains bipartisan support, but the Senate has yet to schedule a floor date or motion to proceed, compressing the viable legislative window.
If no Senate action occurs in early July, Galaxy's Thorn expects consideration to shift to September, when midterm election politics will further crowd the agenda and reduce bandwidth for complex regulatory legislation.
Trump's conditional stance on the SAVE Act adds a competing priority to the Senate calendar, indirectly squeezing the time available for the Clarity Act's multi-step procedural path.
The Clarity Act's passage would resolve years of SEC-CFTC jurisdictional overlap for exchanges, token issuers, and institutional investors, making even minor scheduling signals high-stakes indicators for the digital asset industry.

Galaxy Research Cuts Approval Odds to 50%

Galaxy Research has lowered the probability that the Clarity Act will be enacted in 2026 from 60% to 50%.

Senate Calendar Becomes the Main Challenge

The latest revision highlights how legislative timing, not policy disagreements, is increasingly determining the Clarity Act's prospects.

As the legislative calendar becomes more crowded, large bipartisan bills requiring extensive debate face greater difficulty reaching the Senate floor.

Competing Priorities Add Pressure to the Legislative Agenda

Beyond procedural delays, other priorities in Washington are also reducing the available window for crypto legislation.

A Critical Moment for U.S. Crypto Regulation

Industry Watches the Senate Closely

As a result, even procedural developments, such as committee meetings, scheduling announcements, or delays in Senate debate, have become closely monitored indicators of the bill's chances of success.

A Defining Test for U.S. Crypto Policy

Regulatory Frameworks

USA

PLACE

Galaxy Research

ORG

Clarity Act

ECO

Disclaimer of Warranty

The information provided in this article is for general informational purposes only. We make no warranties about the completeness, reliability, and accuracy of this information. Read full disclaimer

Clarity Act faces growing uncertainty as Galaxy Research cuts passage forecast

Summary

Key Takeaways

Galaxy Research Cuts Approval Odds to 50%

Senate Calendar Becomes the Main Challenge

Competing Priorities Add Pressure to the Legislative Agenda

A Critical Moment for U.S. Crypto Regulation

Industry Watches the Senate Closely

A Defining Test for U.S. Crypto Policy

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Clarity Act faces growing uncertainty as Galaxy Research cuts passage forecast

Summary

Key Takeaways

Galaxy Research Cuts Approval Odds to 50%

Senate Calendar Becomes the Main Challenge

Competing Priorities Add Pressure to the Legislative Agenda

A Critical Moment for U.S. Crypto Regulation

Industry Watches the Senate Closely

A Defining Test for U.S. Crypto Policy

More on This Topic

SEC Moves Toward Formal Crypto Issuance Rules as Congress Stalls

Russia Puts Bitcoin, Ether and USDT at Center of Proposed Retail Crypto Market

Russia Introduces First Comprehensive Framework for Crypto Market Regulation

Bybit Sues North Korea Over $1.5 Billion Crypto Heist, Secures Court Order to Freeze Stolen Assets