Bitcoin Nears $100K as Trump Teases UK Trade Deal and Fed Holds Rates

Bitcoin briefly crossed $99,000 early Thursday, marking its highest level since February and putting it within reach of its all-time high set in March.

The rally was triggered by former President Donald Trump’s late-night post on Truth Social:
“MAJOR TRADE DEAL WITH REPRESENTATIVES OF A BIG, AND HIGHLY RESPECTED, COUNTRY.”
He announced a press conference for Thursday morning at the White House. Sources cited by The New York Times confirmed the deal involves the United Kingdom.

The U.K. has been burdened by a 10% general tariff and 25% duties on steel, aluminum, and cars under the U.S. regime. British officials have sought relief in these areas, and the deal is expected to deliver. In return, the U.K. may reduce its digital services tax and cut tariffs on U.S. agricultural goods.

Crypto markets also found support from a Federal Reserve policy update earlier in the day. The central bank held interest rates steady at 4.25%–4.50%, with Chair Jerome Powell highlighting “heightened uncertainty” but affirming that the U.S. economy remains “in a solid position.” Stocks also reacted positively, with the S&P 500 and Dow each gaining nearly 1%.

Nansen principal analyst Aurelie Barthere told Decrypt that recent signals from Trump and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent indicated that “tariff escalation may be less aggressive than feared.” She added:
“Markets seem to believe there’s a ‘Trump put’ under equities, Treasuries, and crypto.”

Still, she cautioned the rally “needs validation,” especially with trade talks with China unresolved.
“We’ve priced in scenario one,” she said, referencing Nansen’s internal model that gives Bitcoin a 55% chance of reaching new highs. She noted that the upside is now “less asymmetric,” meaning less room for surprise growth.

Macro Backdrop and ETF Inflows Boost Bitcoin’s Momentum

Marcin Kazmierczak, COO of RedStone, emphasized that Bitcoin’s behavior relative to traditional markets has been fluid.
“Bitcoin exhibits variable correlation with the S&P 500 over the past year, fluctuating between approximately -0.2 and 0.4,” he said, classifying the asset as a “diversifier” rather than a consistent “safe haven.”

Meanwhile, former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes is forecasting a sharp rise for Bitcoin—predicting it will reach $150,000 before Ethereum, Solana, and other altcoins begin their rallies.
“We have a similar setup today: We have a lot of fear, uncertainty, and doubt in the markets,” Hayes said in a recent Crypto Banter interview from the Token2049 conference in Dubai.
“The monetary authorities—especially in America—cannot handle that, so they’re going to resort to money printing.”

He pointed to ongoing inflation and soft monetary policy as catalysts for Bitcoin's next bull run, though he tempered expectations by admitting: “My short-term prediction strategy is pretty shit.”

Another driver of momentum is the steady inflow of funds into the newly approved spot Bitcoin ETFs, which allow retail investors to buy shares tied to Bitcoin’s price via brokerage accounts. This has injected fresh liquidity and increased exposure to the asset class.

With bullish sentiment mounting and institutional interest growing, Bitcoin appears poised for another run at the elusive $100,000 milestone.