Current Bitcoin Loss Concentration Nears Levels Last Seen in 2022 Crash

As of early 2025, approximately 46% of Bitcoin’s circulating supply, approximately 9.09 million coins, is held at a loss, approaching levels last seen during the 2022 bear market after the 2024–2025 rally reversed.

Data from CryptoQuant shows that this represents the second-highest concentration of loss in their dataset, which spans from July 2020 to early 2026, just below the peak recorded during the 2022 market downturn.

Loss Concentration in Perspective

The Supply-in-Profit/Loss chart from CryptoQuant tracks coins held at a loss as negative values. The current negative 9.09 million coins figure is approaching the deepest loss concentration on record, previously seen in mid-2022 when nearly 10 million coins were underwater following the Luna and FTX crises.

With a total circulating supply of roughly 19.8 million BTC, this means almost half of all on-chain Bitcoin is currently below its last transaction price.

How Today Differs from 2022

While similar numbers of coins were underwater in both periods, Bitcoin’s absolute price today is significantly higher than in 2022. The current losses primarily affect holders who entered the market during the 2024–2025 rally and are now underwater.

Analysts note that high supply-in-loss levels create unique market pressures. Investors holding coins at a loss may face pressure to sell or remain in positions during market corrections. Those with the highest purchase costs relative to current prices tend to show lower confidence in long-term recovery.

Historical Context

The late 2022 peak of nearly 10 million coins held at a loss provides a reference point. Following that peak, the market bottomed and renewed buying gradually returned coins to profit, setting the stage for the sustained price recovery of 2023–2024.

Whether the current 9.09 million coins in loss marks a new peak depends on Bitcoin’s price stability. Analysts tracking the metric note that a further decline or a stabilization at current levels will determine the next market phase.