CLARITY Act Chances Fall to 60% as Galaxy Digital Warns Time Is Running Out

Galaxy Digital has lowered its expectations for the passage of the United States’ landmark crypto market-structure legislation, warning that time is running out for Congress to finalize the bill before political attention shifts to the upcoming midterm elections.

In a new research note, Galaxy Digital’s Head of Research Alex Thorn reduced the firm’s estimated probability of the CLARITY Act becoming law in 2026 from 75% to 60%, citing mounting procedural and political challenges inside the Senate.

The revision marks a notable shift in sentiment after optimism briefly increased in May following progress made by congressional committees reviewing the legislation.

Senate Calendar Tightens Ahead of Elections

According to Thorn, the biggest challenge facing the legislation is timing.

He argued that the Senate would likely need to pass the bill before lawmakers leave for the August congressional recess, which begins in late July. After that, the legislative calendar becomes increasingly constrained as senators turn their focus toward campaigning ahead of the November midterm elections.

Historically, major legislative initiatives tend to slow significantly during election periods, especially complex bills requiring extensive negotiations and floor debate.

The CLARITY Act still faces several procedural hurdles before it can become law. While Senate Banking and Agriculture Committees have already advanced their own versions of the legislation, the bill still requires at least 60 votes on the Senate floor to overcome extended debate procedures.

In addition, lawmakers must still navigate amendments, reconcile differences between committee versions, and coordinate with the House of Representatives before any final legislation can reach the president’s desk.

Thorn noted that Senate Majority Leader John Thune would realistically need to allocate floor time for the bill sometime in July for the process to remain viable this year.

Key Political Disagreements Remain Unresolved

Galaxy also pointed to the lack of visible progress in negotiations surrounding some of the bill’s most contentious provisions.

Among the unresolved issues are sections related to ethics requirements and illicit finance controls, both of which continue to generate debate among lawmakers and industry stakeholders.

According to Thorn, these unresolved provisions are contributing to growing uncertainty over whether the legislation can gather enough bipartisan support to survive a full Senate vote.

Galaxy indicated it could revise its outlook higher again if Senate leadership formally commits to moving the bill forward next month and if negotiations over disputed provisions show meaningful progress.

Industry Confidence Begins to Fade

Galaxy’s revised outlook reflects a broader cooling of expectations across both Wall Street and the crypto industry regarding the likelihood of major US crypto legislation passing this year.

Analysts at JPMorgan recently estimated that the probability of the CLARITY Act passing in 2026 is now below 50%, also citing the increasingly compressed legislative calendar.

Meanwhile, Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan said discussions with Washington insiders suggested the chances of passage may be significantly lower, with some estimates ranging between 5% and 30%.

The shifting outlook highlights the growing frustration inside parts of the digital asset industry, where companies and institutional investors have spent years calling for clearer federal rules governing cryptocurrencies, tokenized assets, and market structure.

Cynthia Lummis Intensifies Push for Crypto Legislation

Despite growing skepticism, some lawmakers continue to push aggressively for the bill’s advancement.

Wyoming Senator Cynthia Lummis, one of Congress’ strongest advocates for digital assets and chair of the Senate Banking Subcommittee on Digital Assets, has intensified public pressure on lawmakers to move the legislation forward.

Over recent weeks, Lummis has repeatedly argued that failure to pass the CLARITY Act could weaken America’s competitive position in the global digital asset industry.

According to Cointelegraph, in a recent social media post, Lummis described the legislation as being close to the finish line after successfully advancing through committee review.

At the same time, she acknowledged that lawmakers are still attempting to address concerns surrounding ethics provisions and illicit finance safeguards that could ultimately influence the outcome of a Senate floor vote.

Regulatory Uncertainty Continues to Pressure the Industry

The ongoing debate surrounding the CLARITY Act highlights the broader regulatory uncertainty that continues to shape the US digital asset sector.

While jurisdictions such as the European Union, Singapore, Hong Kong, and the UAE have moved forward with clearer crypto regulatory frameworks, the United States remains locked in a prolonged political debate over how digital assets should be classified and supervised.

For institutional investors, banks, and crypto companies, the lack of federal clarity continues to complicate long-term planning, compliance strategies, and capital allocation decisions.

Undoubtedly, the coming weeks may prove critical in determining whether the United States can establish a comprehensive crypto market structure framework before political momentum fades into another election cycle.