Peace in the Middle East Boosts Bitcoin, Circle’s Market Cap Surpasses Coinbase

Cryptocurrency markets surged Monday evening following U.S. President Donald Trump's announcement of a ceasefire agreement between Iran and Israel, a geopolitical breakthrough that injected renewed confidence into risk assets.

Meanwhile, Circle’s post-IPO momentum continued to build, with its market capitalization briefly surpassing that of Coinbase, signaling a shift in investor sentiment toward stablecoin-driven business models.

Ceasefire Announcement Sparks Rally

Bitcoin, ether, and other major digital assets spiked as news broke that Iran and Israel had reached a preliminary agreement to halt hostilities. President Trump posted the update on Truth Social around 6 p.m. ET, claiming both nations had agreed to a phased cessation of military actions over a 24-hour window.

While Iranian officials later stated that a formal deal had yet to be finalized, they signaled no further action would be taken if Israel paused its offensive.

Bitcoin climbed over 4.5% in the past 24 hours to trade near $105,500, rebounding sharply from earlier lows. Ether saw even stronger gains, jumping nearly 9% to cross $2,420. Altcoins joined the rally, with Solana surging almost 10% and XRP rising over 7%. The GMCI 30 Index, which tracks the top 30 cryptocurrencies, rose 7% on the day.

“Conflict cooled and clarity returned,” said Vincent Liu, CIO at Kronos Research. “Institutions stayed steady, Bitcoin pushed past $106K, driven by renewed confidence and geopolitical relief.”

Analysts say the next phase of the rally depends on macroeconomic cues, including ETF inflows, trade policy signals, and dollar strength. "The ceasefire lit the fire, but macro signals will keep it burning," Liu added.

Circle’s IPO Momentum Pushes Market Cap Near $80B

In parallel with the market-wide rally, Circle's stock (CRCL) continued its explosive run. Trading as high as $298 on Monday morning, the stablecoin issuer’s fully diluted market cap briefly crossed $77 billion, surpassing both its own stablecoin, USDC, and Coinbase, which holds a revenue-sharing agreement with Circle on USDC reserves.

Launched on June 5 at an IPO price of $31, Circle’s stock has now returned nearly 600% in under a month. Its rise has been amplified by the Senate’s recent passage of the GENIUS Act, a landmark bill aimed at establishing federal guardrails for fully-backed stablecoins. Both Circle and Coinbase shares rallied last week on expectations of regulatory clarity and growing institutional adoption.

“Circle’s IPO is changing the conversation with mainstream investors,” said Bitwise CEO Hunter Horsley. “2025 is the start of the mainstream era.”

Still, the valuation gap between Circle and Coinbase has raised eyebrows. “Coinbase captures about half of Circle’s revenue and has multiple income streams, yet it's now valued less,” said Alexander Blume, CEO of Two Prime Digital Assets. “It reflects today’s momentum-driven markets, not necessarily the fundamentals.”

According to The Block, Coinbase currently trades at $305 with a market cap of roughly $77.8 billion, just ahead of Circle at the time of publication. Circle's meteoric rise has made CRCL a favorite among retail traders, while institutions are watching closely to see if valuations stabilize or continue upward in anticipation of expanding stablecoin use cases.

Meanwhile, both companies are poised to benefit from further regulatory developments. Trump has publicly stated he expects stablecoin legislation on his desk by August, a move that could solidify the U.S. as a leader in digital financial infrastructure.