Bitcoin Miners Face Price Risk from Iran Conflict Rather Than Energy Costs

Bitcoin mining operations may feel the effects of oil market disruptions linked to the Iran conflict mostly through bitcoin price swings rather than energy costs, according to Luxor Technology’s Hashrate Index.

The study examined how geopolitical events affecting global energy supply could impact mining economics after coordinated strikes by the U.S. and Israel disrupted tanker routes in the Strait of Hormuz, which normally handles about 20% of the world’s oil. Following the attacks, Brent crude surged from around $60 per barrel to over $100 before easing near $90, while decentralized derivatives platforms like Hyperliquid saw increased trading outside traditional hours.

Mining Energy Costs Mostly Decoupled from Oil

More than half of the Bitcoin network relies on non-fossil energy sources, and direct oil usage in mining is negligible. The main concern is whether oil price spikes translate into electricity costs in major mining regions. Luxor estimates that roughly 90% of global hashrate operates in markets where electricity prices have minimal correlation with crude.

Countries with the largest mining shares include the U.S., Russia, China, Paraguay, UAE, Oman, Canada, Ethiopia, and Kazakhstan. These regions primarily rely on hydro, coal, natural gas, or geothermal power, limiting the direct impact of crude price swings. Only around 8–10% of global mining, concentrated in Gulf states and nearby countries, is in oil-sensitive grids.

Macro Risks Pose a Greater Threat

The analysis suggests that broader economic consequences of geopolitical shocks are more significant for miners than energy costs. Rising oil prices can increase inflation expectations and affect interest rate outlooks, potentially driving investors toward lower-risk assets and away from volatile assets like bitcoin.

This dynamic affects mining revenue through “hashprice,” which measures earnings per unit of computing power. Earlier this year, hashprice fell to a record low of $27.89 per PH/s/day as bitcoin dropped from $78,000 to $65,000. Miners who hedged revenue through USD-denominated forward contracts outperformed spot mining by up to 8.2%.

Bitcoin Price Volatility Drives Miner Risk Amid Iran Tensions

Geopolitical events that push oil above $100 per barrel primarily impact miners through bitcoin price volatility rather than operational expenses. Crypto markets remain sensitive to macro developments tied to the conflict.

Wenny Cai, COO at SynFutures, noted that Middle East tensions briefly strengthened the U.S. dollar, creating short-term headwinds for risk assets. However, ongoing global liquidity and a prolonged easing cycle from the Federal Reserve continue to support institutional demand, with bitcoin holding above $71,000 amid ETF inflows and tightening supply.

Analysts at Bitunix highlighted that bitcoin’s near-term range is $69,000–$73,500, as traders watch geopolitical developments for directional signals.