Grayscale Predicts New Bitcoin Highs in 2026, Says Four-Year Cycle No Longer Applies

Grayscale Research expects Bitcoin to set fresh all-time highs by 2026, challenging concerns that the world’s largest cryptocurrency may be headed for a prolonged downturn.

The firm’s latest outlook argues that Bitcoin’s price action is no longer bound to the traditional four-year halving cycle many investors view as a market compass.

In a report published Monday, Grayscale said Bitcoin is unlikely to follow the so-called “four-year cycle,” a theory suggesting that prices peak and then undergo a deep correction in predictable patterns tied to each halving. Analysts at the firm contend that this model may be weakening, and that Bitcoin has room for new gains as early as next year. “Despite natural market uncertainty, we do not see the four-year cycle as the primary driver of future price direction,” the report noted.

Bitcoin has endured sharp volatility since early October, falling as much as 32% from its November highs. The asset briefly touched $84,000 on Monday before recovering to about $86,909 as of 2:20 a.m. ET on Tuesday, according to data from The Block. Yet Grayscale emphasized that long-term investors historically benefit from patience, adding that pullbacks of 25% or more do not automatically signal the beginning of a prolonged bear market.