Bitcoin has surged past $125,000 this weekend, setting a new all-time high and pushing its market capitalization above $2.5 trillion for the first time.
Analysts say the rally reflects both renewed investor confidence and a shifting macroeconomic backdrop that favors decentralized assets.
The price jump comes amid growing uncertainty in the United States, where the government shutdown (the first since 2018) has reignited debates around Bitcoin’s role as a hedge against political and fiscal instability.
Macro Uncertainty Boosts Bitcoin’s Appeal
According to Fabian Dori, Chief Investment Officer at Sygnum Bank, the shutdown has highlighted Bitcoin’s reputation as a store of value in times of political dysfunction. “When confidence in government spending and stability wavers, interest in decentralized assets tends to rise,” he explained.
Beyond U.S. politics, analysts point to broader economic conditions, including ample liquidity, a resilient services sector, and narrowing gaps between Bitcoin and traditional assets like gold and equities, as key contributors to the rally. Together, these factors have created a favorable environment for risk assets such as Bitcoin to outperform.
However, the duration of the rally could depend on how the shutdown influences the Federal Reserve’s next moves. A more dovish stance from the Fed, particularly if it signals a pause or rate cut, could sustain upward momentum. “Markets could benefit if a resolution to the shutdown reduces uncertainty and prompts a softer policy tone,” said Jake Kennis, senior research analyst at Nansen.
Renewed Accumulation Phase
Onchain data also points to a shift in investor behavior. Analysts say large holders, or “whales,” appear to be reducing selling activity, suggesting the market may be entering a new accumulation phase.
“Selling pressure from long-term holders is easing, while short-term investors seem to have stabilized after a period of losses,” noted Dori. Historically, periods of lower speculation and steadier positioning have preceded major Bitcoin upswings.
Meanwhile, data from Glassnode shows that Bitcoin’s open interest reset sharply following last week’s options expiry, a technical event that often sets the stage for renewed momentum in the next quarter.
Eyes on $150,000
If Bitcoin can sustain its gains above the key $120,000 support level, analysts believe the current rally could extend further.
Charles Edwards, a digital asset analyst, told Cointelegraph at Token2049 that continued strength could push the price toward $150,000 before the end of 2025.
For now, the market appears to be entering a phase of cautious optimism, one driven as much by macroeconomic uncertainty as by growing institutional interest in Bitcoin as a long-term store of value.
