The initial Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) in the United States, represented by BTC on the tickers and currently valued at $29,808, might receive approval before the month of February, as suggested by Mike Novogratz, CEO of Galaxy Digital.
Novogratz cites insider information from both BlackRock and Invesco as the basis for his prediction.
Novogratz emphasized the significance of this development, noting that information from contacts within Invesco and BlackRock indicates that it’s a matter of “when” rather than “if” the ETF will be approved by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).
He approximates a potential timeline of around four to six months, which he shared with shareholders during Galaxy Digital’s Q2 earnings call on August 8. Despite this optimistic outlook, Galaxy Digital reported a net loss of $46 million during the same call.
Galaxy Digital, under Novogratz’s leadership, is among the contenders vying for the creation of a spot Bitcoin ETF. In collaboration with the massive asset manager Invesco, which boasts a portfolio of $1.5 trillion and holds the status of the fourth-largest ETF issuer in the United States, Galaxy Digital submitted a reapplication for the ETF in June.
It’s important to note that the exact timing of the ETF’s approval remains uncertain as it awaits evaluation by the SEC. As a result, Novogratz refrained from providing a concrete comment on the anticipated approval timeline during his discussion with shareholders.
Nonetheless, Novogratz holds the belief that once the green light is given, established issuers of spot Bitcoin ETFs such as BlackRock and Invesco will engage in fierce competition to secure their share of the market.
“In light of both BlackRock’s ETF filing and, honestly, Invesco’s collaboration with Galaxy, we’re prepared to vigorously compete for market dominance once the approval is granted,” Novogratz remarked. He underscored the intensity of the competition by comparing it to a contest between determined adversaries.
Responding to a query, Chris Ferraro, the President of Galaxy Digital, contributed that it wouldn’t be surprising if the SEC ultimately decides to endorse a potential Bitcoin ETF to avoid the perception of being obstructionist toward the cryptocurrency industry.
Ferraro explained, “I think the potential approval of an ETF could serve as a response to counter claims of anti-crypto sentiment. Approving an ETF would demonstrate our openness to crypto.” This suggests that they are hopeful that the same sentiment would be extended to their ETF filing as well.
An expedited ETF arrival is a possibility as well. Some analysts suggest that the surge of spot Bitcoin ETFs might materialize even sooner, contingent on the outcome of Grayscale’s lawsuit against the SEC.
Related to this, an ETF analyst has heightened the likelihood of a spot Bitcoin ETF’s approval in the U.S. to 65%, according to Cointelegraph.
In the past year, Grayscale took legal action against the SEC after its application to transform the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust into a spot ETF was denied. Analysts speculate that if Grayscale prevails in its case against the SEC, a probable scenario would involve the simultaneous approval of numerous or all applicants seeking to launch spot Bitcoin ETFs, following the path of least resistance.