Banking 3.0 in 2026: When Banks Are Likely to Lose the Right to Defend Friction

Banking 3.0 in 2026 is not being shaped by belief in crypto, but by growing pressure on banks to justify slow, expensive, and opaque financial rails.

For more than a decade, banks have been described as slow to adopt blockchain and digital assets. The official explanations were familiar: regulation, risk, compliance, prudence.

Those explanations were incomplete.

In an interview, Ahmed Bin Sulayem captured the deeper issue more bluntly. Banks, he said, were lazy — not because they lacked capability, but because legacy systems continued to generate revenue, friction could still be monetized, and clients had limited alternatives inside the regulated financial system.

That diagnosis explains why adoption stalled for so long.
It also explains why 2026 is likely to look different.

Banks are unlikely to accelerate because they suddenly believe in blockchain. They are more likely to accelerate because the business model that rewarded inefficiency is coming under pressure.

How Banks Learned to Monetize Delay

The global banking system did not resist change because cross-border payments were broken.

It resisted change because they were profitable enough.

Clients experience this reality daily. In the same country, under the same regulator, one bank can charge $30 to send a dollar transfer that takes several days to arrive — often delayed, returned, or stalled in compliance checks with little explanation. Another bank charges $25 and delivers the funds within an hour.

No blockchain.
No stablecoin.
No new technology.

The difference is not infrastructure.
It is incentives.

Large banks, protected by scale and balance-sheet gravity, can afford to lose individual clients. Smaller or more agile institutions cannot. For the former, friction becomes a pricing strategy. For the latter, efficiency becomes survival.

For years, these dynamic allowed banks to delay modernization without consequence. Correspondent banking remained opaque, slow, and expensive. Fees were justified as process. Clients absorbed the cost.

Blockchain did not initially threaten this model.
It exposed it.

Why the Model Is Likely to Break in 2026

What is likely to change in 2026 is not belief in crypto.
It is the growing difficulty banks will face in defending friction as a sustainable business model.

For most of the past decade, banks had the option to wait. Legacy rails still functioned. Regulatory ambiguity provided cover. Inefficiency could still be monetized.

That optionality is now narrowing — and 2026 is shaping up to be the year when delay increasingly looks like a strategic choice rather than a neutral default.

The reason is structural, not ideological.

Regulatory ambiguity is narrowing

By the end of 2025, the global direction on stablecoins, tokenized settlement, and digital-asset infrastructure is sufficiently clear for banks to act without guessing. In the United States, policy has moved from open-ended debate toward framework building. In Europe, MiCA has shifted digital assets from theory into governed financial products. In Asia, key financial centres have progressed from sandbox experimentation to licensing regimes.

Banks historically do not move when technology matures.
They move when regulatory ambiguity is reduced enough that inaction becomes a decision.

In 2026, “we are waiting for clarity” is likely to sound less credible — to regulators, clients, and boards alike.

Cross-border economics are under pressure

Cross-border payments have long been one of the safest places for banks to extract fees from delay, opacity, and manual reconciliation. That safety is eroding.

Even without blockchain, fintech infrastructure and instant payment systems have reset expectations around speed and transparency. When one bank can settle internationally within hours and another takes days under identical regulatory conditions, inefficiency stops looking structural. It starts looking deliberate.

In 2026, banks are likely to face increasing pressure to compete on settlement performance, not just brand or balance-sheet size.

Clients are becoming less captive

Historically, banks relied on inertia. Switching accounts was painful, slow, and risky.

That dynamic is weakening.

Corporate treasurers, family offices, and internationally mobile clients increasingly operate across multiple banks, wallets, and platforms. Capital is routed where execution is fastest and most predictable. Loyalty is conditional.

In such an environment, friction risks becoming a churn trigger rather than a revenue source.

Blockchain functions as an audit, not a revolution

Blockchain does not force banks to change.
It removes their ability to hide inefficiency.

When near-instant settlement is demonstrably possible elsewhere — even if only in specific corridors — slow, opaque processes inside banks are no longer perceived as “how finance works.” They are seen as choices.

That reputational shift is likely to matter more in 2026 than any single technological breakthrough.

A Global Shift, Not a Local One

The pressure building toward 2026 is global.

In the United States, banks such as JPMorgan Chase have spent years developing internal blockchain rails and tokenized deposit systems — not for retail adoption, but for treasury and institutional settlement.

Earlier this month, JPMorgan launched its first tokenized money market fund on Ethereum, issuing on-chain fund shares that represent ownership in a traditional money market vehicle. The structure allows institutional investors to subscribe, hold, and transfer fund units directly on public blockchain infrastructure, compressing settlement cycles and reducing operational friction without changing the underlying asset class.

In Europe, institutions including Santander explored blockchain settlement well before regulation compelled action. With MiCA in force, those explorations increasingly resemble preparatory work rather than optional pilots.

Across Asia, banks in markets such as Singapore, Japan, and Hong Kong have advanced tokenised deposits and digital settlement within tightly controlled frameworks. What 2026 is likely to change is not intent, but scale.

Across regions, the pattern is consistent. Banks are not attempting to reinvent themselves as crypto-native institutions. They are selectively upgrading settlement rails where legacy infrastructure has become harder to defend.

Why the UAE Is Likely to Show the Shift Earlier

The UAE is not an exception. It is an early mirror.

Its banking clients are international by default. Capital moves across borders routinely. When settlement is slow or expensive, the friction is immediately visible rather than hidden in domestic workflows.

At the same time, regulators in the UAE have removed the most common justification for delay. Frameworks for payment tokens, custody, and digital assets already exist. Banks can act — or explain why they are choosing not to.

That combination forces clarity.

UAE Banks as Signals of Direction — Preparation Before Permission

What is emerging among UAE banks should be read less as innovation leadership and more as competitive preparation within regulatory boundaries.

Zand Bank has positioned itself around crypto-friendly infrastructure because its value proposition depends on efficiency rather than inertia.

Ruya Bank has enabled Shariah-compliant Bitcoin exposure as clients increasingly expect access to digital assets within trusted Islamic banking frameworks.

MBank, through AEcoin, moved early after securing Central Bank approval for an AED-backed stablecoin, treating programmable money as regulated settlement infrastructure rather than a branding exercise.

RAKBANK, while still waiting for Central Bank approval for a stablecoin initiative, has already integrated with Bitpanda to provide clients with regulated crypto exposure. The move signals readiness rather than completion.

A similar sequencing is visible at First Abu Dhabi Bank, which is understood to be preparing a stablecoin initiative built on ADI Foundation’s locally developed ADI Chain, while awaiting Central Bank approval. The choice of domestic, institution-grade infrastructure reflects alignment with sovereign frameworks rather than offshore experimentation.

Different approaches.
The same direction.

What 2026 Is Likely to Look Like in Practice

The acceleration expected in 2026 is unlikely to be loud.

There will be no mass retail migration and no sudden abandonment of legacy rails. The change is more likely to be operational:

• Stablecoin rails introduced for institutional settlement
• Tokenized instruments held within regulated balance sheets
• Custody treated as baseline infrastructure rather than differentiation
• Cards and wallets evolving to reflect digital assets as standard optionality

Banks will continue to charge for service.
What they may struggle to justify is charging for delay.

Banking 3.0 as Accountability

Banks were not slow because they were unaware.
They were slow because inefficiency paid.

2026 is shaping up to be the year when that logic weakens.

As regulatory clarity increases, client tolerance declines, and alternative rails mature, banks face a narrowing set of choices: earn fees by adding value — or risk watching capital route around them.

Banking 3.0 is not about disruption.
It is about accountability.

And as 2026 approaches, the infrastructure is no longer entirely on the banks’ side.