With Bitcoin’s total market cap now in the trillions of dollars and over 100 public companies holding it on their balance sheets, it has unequivocally cemented its place as a mainstream financial asset. Yet, sensational headlines about quantum computing continue to create unnecessary fear.
While a quantum threat is a real, long-term consideration, the idea that it poses an immediate and existential risk to the entire network is a fear-mongering fantasy that ignores the proactive and robust measures already in place to address this future technological shift.
The only reason for this fear is a misunderstanding of how the network works and the incredible resources required for a quantum attack. Both Google and IBM are at the forefront of this race.
As of late 2024, Google’s Willow chip had 105 qubits, while IBM’s Condor processor reached 1,121 qubits. This is significant progress, but it is a minuscule fraction of what is needed.
According to scientific estimates, it would require a quantum computer with 1,500 to over 2,000 logical qubits working continuously for 15 to 20 years to crack Bitcoin’s encryption. Each logical qubit requires thousands of physical qubits to correct for errors.
In essence, we are still a million-qubit-plus system away from a true threat, a gap that will take many years, if not decades, to close.
The Community’s Proactive Defense
Bitcoin’s security is not static; it is an evolving system. The community has long anticipated cryptographic advances, and a clear path to a quantum-resistant future is already defined.
A key proposal, the “Pay to Quantum Resistant Hash (P2QRH)” BIP, demonstrates the forward-thinking nature of the network. This proposal is not a panicked reaction but a deliberate, well-considered plan designed to allow the entire network to upgrade its cryptographic security, ensuring that Bitcoin remains safe for generations to come.
The Myth of Lost Wallets
The only wallets that could theoretically be at risk are those that are truly dormant or lost, where owners are unable to initiate a transaction to the new quantum-resistant format. According to a past analysis by Sound Money Report, this category is estimated to hold between 2.3 million and 7.8 million BTC, equivalent to 11% to 37% of Bitcoin’s total circulating supply.
However, the number of these “lost” wallets is a major point of contention. No one actually knows how many of these dormant wallets are genuinely inaccessible, or if they are simply being held by long-term investors. We have seen clear evidence that these seemingly lost coins can, and do, move. For example, a wallet holding 479 BTC woke up for the first time in nearly 13 years, as reported by The Block.
In another instance, two wallets from the “Satoshi-era” moved 10,000 BTC each after being dormant for 14 years, as detailed by Newsweek . This proves that what appears to be a lost wallet may simply be a patient one.
The future of Bitcoin is one of evolution. While a short-term risk may be a concern for a small fraction of truly lost wallets, the vast majority of the network is held by active participants who will transition to the new security protocols.
The network’s decentralized, adaptive nature ensures that it will remain the most secure and dominant digital asset, well into the quantum age and beyond.
