Can Bitcoin Break Out? Record M2, BlackRock Buzz, and the Case for a ’Big’ July
After a powerful start to Donald Trump’s second term, Bitcoin has cooled in recent weeks—but the market is growing increasingly confident that the next leg higher is near.
Trump’s crypto czar has predicted a “big” July, while analysts speak of a “perfect storm” forming: a combination of record money supply, geopolitical trade tensions, monetary policy uncertainty, and institutional adoption that could push Bitcoin well beyond its current range.
Trump’s Crypto Team Predicts a “Big” July
President Trump’s administration, known for its vocal crypto-friendly stance, has continued signaling bullish sentiment. Trump’s appointed “crypto czar” reportedly expects a “big” July for digital assets. That optimism follows months of price consolidation after a strong run-up earlier in the year.
Since July of last year, Bitcoin is still up nearly 100%, and many investors argue there is plenty of dry powder on the sidelines. Some even describe “trillions and trillions” of dollars waiting to move into the market, fueling aggressive price targets.
BlackRock’s Crypto “Bombshell” on the Horizon
Adding to the intrigue, crypto analysts are bracing for what has been described as a “huge” BlackRock crypto market bombshell, according to Forbes. While details are scarce, expectations are that BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager, may be preparing new crypto products or institutional buying campaigns that could funnel massive capital inflows into digital assets.
Such institutional moves have historically proven to be inflection points for the crypto market, helping legitimize the asset class while increasing its liquidity and investor base.
The combined crypto market cap has climbed to around $3.4 trillion, positioning it near a critical inflection point as BlackRock enters the fray.
M2 Money Supply Hits $22 Trillion—A Historical Correlation
Beyond institutional adoption, macroeconomic forces are aligning in crypto’s favor. The U.S. M2 money supply—a measure of the nation’s liquid assets including cash, checking and savings deposits, and money market funds—has hit a record $22 trillion.
Historically, Bitcoin’s price has often tracked the growth of M2. As M2 expands, so does the pool of liquid capital searching for returns that can beat inflation. Bitcoin, with its capped supply, has been pitched as a hedge against this monetary expansion.
“As M2 money supply begins to rise again, history suggests that a portion of this liquidity will flow into bitcoin and other digital assets,” said Matt Mena, crypto research strategist at 21Shares.
Anthony “Pomp” Pompliano, the crypto entrepreneur now leading a new bitcoin acquisition firm, has even forecast $150,000 BTC before year-end if the money-supply link holds.
The Fed’s Balancing Act
The Federal Reserve’s current posture also matters. Despite tariffs introduced by Trump that have driven U.S. inflation forecasts higher, the Fed has kept interest rates on hold, having paused its cutting cycle last month. Fed Chair Jerome Powell has signaled caution, citing the inflationary impact of trade policies but resisting calls for aggressive rate moves.
“We didn’t overreact, in fact we didn’t react at all. We’re simply taking some time,” Powell explained during a recent panel.
Market analysts interpret this stance as a sign the Fed will only cut rates if employment deteriorates sharply. For now, the prospect of persistent inflation—and a Fed hesitant to cut—could sustain demand for hedges like Bitcoin.
Bitcoin’s Bullish Setup and the Road Ahead
This setup represents one of the most classically bullish backdrops Bitcoin has seen in years. We’re seeing a surge in money supply, persistent inflation pressures that have kept the Federal Reserve on hold, and renewed political support for crypto from the Trump administration. BlackRock’s spot Bitcoin ETF has continued to attract inflows even during recent periods of sideways trading, underscoring the resilience of institutional demand.
There’s also heightened anticipation around what Forbes has described as a “huge BlackRock crypto market bombshell,” which could arrive just as traders are already watching geopolitical tensions as a potential hedge driver.
Of course, risks remain. The much-discussed BlackRock announcement might fail to meet expectations, or macroeconomic conditions could deteriorate to the point where the Fed is forced to tighten policy or a recession erodes risk appetite entirely.
While a “big July” isn’t guaranteed—but it’s certainly plausible. If BlackRock delivers, and liquidity continues to grow, Bitcoin could indeed test $150,000 by year-end. Even if not, the floor seems well supported around current levels given these macro forces.
For investors, it’s a time to watch July very carefully—and be prepared for volatility, both to the upside and the downside.
