Bitcoin’s rally past $116,000 is gaining momentum as traders across global markets position themselves ahead of a pivotal week shaped by two key macroeconomic events: the Federal Reserve’s upcoming rate decision and an anticipated U.S.–China tariff truce.
Data from CryptoQuant shows that open interest in Bitcoin derivatives, a measure of the total value of outstanding leveraged positions, has climbed to nearly $40 billion, showing heightened speculation and risk-taking across the crypto market. That’s up from about $33 billion last week, when Bitcoin was trading near $107,600.
The surge in leveraged exposure reflects growing confidence that the Fed will announce another quarter-point rate cut on Wednesday, continuing its monetary easing cycle amid a slowing U.S. economy. According to the prediction market Myriad, traders are pricing in a 92.6% probability of such a move.
“The upcoming FOMC meeting is widely expected to deliver a 25-basis-point rate cut to 4.00–4.25%, a move markets have already priced in,” said Gracy Chen, CEO at Bitget. “Despite the ongoing U.S. government shutdown adding fiscal uncertainty, the Fed’s decision should proceed as planned, as monetary policy operates independently of Congress.”
Chen added that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is likely to hint at a gradual easing cycle, which could inject fresh liquidity into markets and support risk assets such as Bitcoin. “If Bitcoin holds above $112,000, it could push toward $118,000 to $120,000 by month’s end, while rising open interest near $40 billion suggests renewed trader confidence,” she said.
Still, analysts caution that such optimism may come with a cost. High levels of leverage have historically amplified volatility, particularly during macroeconomic announcements, leaving markets vulnerable to sharp reversals.
Trade Hopes Boost Sentiment
Adding fuel to the rally, reports of progress in U.S.–China trade negotiations have lifted investor sentiment. Bitcoin briefly climbed to a two-week high of $116,400 on Monday as news broke that both nations were nearing a preliminary tariff deal ahead of Thursday’s meeting between President Donald Trump and President Xi Jinping.
“Recent optimism surrounding the U.S.–China trade negotiations helped ignite a weekend rally in Bitcoin. Signs of progress have lifted broader risk sentiment,” said Wenny Cai, co-founder and COO of SynFutures.
Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One that he was optimistic both sides would “come away with the deal,” a statement that helped markets recover from the panic sparked by his earlier threats to impose a 100% tariff on Chinese imports starting November 1.
Following those comments, Bitcoin reclaimed the $114,000 short-term holder cost basis, a key psychological level that had previously acted as resistance after the market’s $19 billion liquidation event earlier this month. Analysts say holding above that level could confirm a short-term bullish reversal.
Outlook: Momentum Meets Caution
While traders appear to be betting on dovish policy and easing geopolitical tensions, many analysts warn that markets are treading on fragile ground. Bitcoin’s open interest remains below its October 6 peak of $47 billion, when the cryptocurrency reached an all-time high of $126,080, suggesting that some investors remain cautious after recent volatility.
Even so, the combination of potential rate cuts, easing trade tensions, and renewed institutional flows through ETFs continues to underpin the narrative for a broader crypto recovery.
As Chen noted, “Bitcoin’s rebound over the weekend reflects improving sentiment, with strong ETF inflows and easing trade tensions fueling momentum.”
Whether that optimism will hold after Wednesday’s Fed decision remains to be seen, but for now, Bitcoin’s leveraged traders are clearly positioning for a breakout.
