Bitcoin maintained a steady position near $108,000 over the weekend, as traders brace for a wave of macroeconomic signals from this week’s high-profile European Central Bank (ECB) Forum in Sintra.
The event, which will feature key central banking figures including Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and ECB President Christine Lagarde, is expected to offer fresh clues on the direction of global monetary policy.
While price movement has remained relatively calm, underlying data suggests the quiet may not last long.
On-Chain Signals Point to Rising Tension
Market watchers are closely monitoring large-scale Bitcoin transactions, which may be foreshadowing a shift in market sentiment.
According to independent analyst Axel Adler Jr., a surge in whale activity, large holders moving funds to centralized exchanges, alongside declining exchange reserves, could mark the beginning of a more volatile period.
“This setup usually precedes elevated price swings,” Adler wrote in his weekly newsletter. He believes that if Bitcoin can maintain its current support at $108,000, the path toward $112,000 remains intact.
At the same time, weakening inflows of stablecoins, often used to signal fresh capital entering crypto markets, add a layer of caution to bullish outlooks.
Derivatives Markets Reflect Diverging Sentiment
Traders in the derivatives space are already positioning for a potential pivot. According to Cole Kennelly, founder of Volmex Finance, trading activity in volatility index perpetuals has surged, signaling increased demand for exposure to rapid market movement. A reported $806,000 in trading volume over the weekend on gTrade indicates growing anticipation of sharp directional swings.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin options data shows a defensive posture. Around 20% of open interest on Derive is concentrated in put options between $85,000 and $106,000, suggesting that traders are hedging against downside risks amid ongoing macro uncertainty.
In contrast, Ethereum’s options market paints a more optimistic picture. Traders are favoring call options at $2,900 and $3,200, with sentiment likely fueled by the upcoming Ethereum Community Conference (ETHCC) in Cannes. Historically, this event has driven positive momentum through ecosystem announcements and product rollouts.
Policy Uncertainty at the Forefront
The backdrop for all this is a global economy grappling with fragile growth and unclear inflation trends.
Powell is expected to reiterate the Federal Reserve’s cautious stance on interest rates, stressing the need for more data before committing to a pivot in policy. The ECB’s theme, “Adapting to change,” reflects the wider uncertainty that continues to shape both traditional and digital asset markets.
