Bitcoin Steadies as Markets Await US Inflation Report and Signs of US-China Thaw

Cryptocurrency markets are in a midweek pause, with Bitcoin and Ethereum prices trading flat as investors await the upcoming US inflation report and closely monitor developments in the US-China trade dispute.

Bitcoin (BTC) is currently trading around $108,164, slightly higher than Monday’s level but still down 2% for the week. Ethereum (ETH) remains near $3,815, showing similar consolidation as traders weigh upcoming macroeconomic signals.

According to analytics firm QCP Capital, the current stabilization represents a “narrow-range equilibrium,” or a calm before a potential storm in crypto markets.

CPI Report Takes Center Stage

All eyes are now on Friday’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, the only major US economic indicator still being released amid the ongoing government shutdown.

QCP Capital described the CPI as the “singular anchor” for monetary policy expectations and broader market sentiment. A softer-than-expected inflation reading, the firm noted, could “re-anchor the soft-landing trade” and lift Bitcoin prices as hopes grow for looser monetary policy.

Signs of Progress in US-China Trade Relations

Meanwhile, optimism is cautiously returning to the US-China trade front. After a weekend marked by mixed messages, President Trump eased tensions by stating that “the USA wants to help China, not hurt it,” following earlier threats of a new wave of tariffs.

The shift has reshaped prediction market sentiment. On Polymarket, traders now see a 77% chance that a tariff agreement will be reached by November 10, while the odds of Trump’s proposed 100% tariffs taking effect have dropped to just 16%.

Market Reset After Major Liquidation Event

This phase of stability follows a sharp sell-off last week that wiped out nearly $20 billion in leveraged positions across major exchanges. Analysts say that liquidation event effectively reset the crypto market, clearing excessive leverage and giving traders a cleaner slate ahead of the critical CPI announcement.

The big question now: will Friday’s data confirm the “soft landing” narrative, or reignite the volatility that has defined recent crypto trading?

Bitcoin and Ethereum Price Outlook

Analysts at Standard Chartered note that while sellers continue to cap Bitcoin’s upside momentum, a dip below $100,000 could mark a “last chance to buy” before the next major bull run.

Ethereum’s outlook, however, remains divided. A recent $650 million transfer by the Ethereum Foundation triggered a wave of profit-taking and liquidations, leaving traders split between two scenarios — a breakout toward $5,000 or a drop toward $2,850 if the $3,470 support fails to hold.

With macro events like the US CPI report and US-China trade negotiations dominating sentiment, crypto markets are holding their breath. Whether this calm sets the stage for another leg higher or a fresh round of volatility will soon be revealed.