Bitcoin Falls to $109K as Fed’s Powell Warns December Rate Cut “Not Guaranteed”

A rough trading day for crypto markets quickly worsened after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s unexpectedly hawkish remarks during his post-meeting press conference. “A rate cut in December is far from a foregone conclusion,” Fed's Powell said, surprising investors who had priced in a 90% chance of another rate cut at the Fed’s final meeting of the year.

The reaction was swift: Bitcoin (BTC) plunged nearly $2,000 to $109,600, erasing much of its earlier weekly gains and sliding 5% in the past 24 hours. The broader crypto market followed suit, while U.S. stocks also reversed course, turning early gains into losses.

Fed’s Hawkish Cut Jolts Markets

Earlier in the day, the Federal Reserve delivered a 25-basis-point rate cut, lowering the benchmark federal funds rate to 3.75%–4.00%. However, the move was viewed as a “hawkish cut”, with Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid dissenting and voting to hold rates steady.

Following Powell’s remarks, the 10-year Treasury yield jumped eight basis points to 4.06%, and the U.S. dollar surged higher. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of another December rate cut dropped sharply to 69% from 90% earlier in the day.

Market Uncertainty Deepens Amid Shutdown

Analysts say the ongoing U.S. government shutdown and data blackout are complicating the Fed’s decision-making.
“The shutdown’s data blackout means subsequent Fed moves are now unpredictable—and that’s what markets hate most,” said Marcin Kazmierczak, co-founder of RedStone, in an emailed note. “This uncertainty likely means heightened bitcoin and crypto volatility through year-end.”

Traders See Buying Opportunity

Despite the pullback, some market participants remain cautiously optimistic. Paul Howard, director at crypto trading firm Wincent, said BTC continues to hold the $110,000–$120,000 range.
“My sense is this is convenient for short-term accumulation,” Howard noted. “We may see macro improvements into November driving risk assets before some end-of-year consolidation.”

For now, all eyes are on the Fed’s next move. Whether Powell’s tone signals a genuine policy shift or a strategic attempt to temper expectations, markets appear set for increased volatility heading into year-end—with bitcoin once again at the center of the storm.